Lancaster Short-Range Economic Forecast

This project presented the City of Lancaster with updated economic and demographic information to demonstrate current trends for the future of Lancaster.      

Goals

• Identify potential areas of growth, and minimize environmental and economic threats
• Protect and improve the quality of life for the residents of Lancaster and the region
• Update the City’s knowledge of current local economic and demographic trends
• Create a clear and in-depth picture of the local housing market
• Assess the City’s competitiveness against others in the region

The City of Lancaster continues to deal with the challenge of rapid growth and continuous change within the city and its surrounding area.  In order to manage this change effectively, the City needed new information about economic trends and where demographic trends were heading.  The role of housing, a critical element of future growth in the Antelope Valley, was examined and was a key determinant in the competitiveness index and SWOT assessment that was developed in the study.

Results

• Strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats assessment
  • Strengths: Low development/impact fees, strong non-farm job growth momentum, relatively inexpensive housing, moderate to low taxes
  • Weaknesses: High crime rate, less educated populace (with respect to a college degree), lower retail sales per person, smaller percent of population in the working age cohort of 25 to 44
• Updated information on population, demographic and household characteristics, employment, taxable sales, income, student enrollment, and crime
• Promote local job growth to reduce commuting and other issues associated with being a partially bedroom community